Being again near general elections is an opportunity to look at some topics we talked about over the years.
I am quite fond of (and a bit addicted to) Nate Silver’s site FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s models tell us what is the probability that Hillary Clinton will win the elections. It is a very difficult question to understand how does the model relates to reality. What does it even mean that Clinton’s chances to win are 81.5%? One thing we can do with more certainty is to compare the predictions of one model to that of another model.
Some data from Nate Silver. Comparing the chance of winning with the chance of winning of the popular vote accounts for “aggregation of information,” the probability for a recount accounts for noise sensitivity. The computation for the winning probabilities themselves is also similar in spirit to the study of noise sensitivity/stability.
This data is month-old…
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